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05.28.08, 06:02 AM General Topics
70 replies
Wow. Unless prices dip by at least 40% it is still better to rent here in NYC. [ Reply | Watch | Flag ]
General Topics 05.28.08, 06:02 AM Flag
 

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here's the link; run your own numbers tp://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1211979673-UWxFyAviOwtfzQnt6sq5XQ# [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:03 AM Flag
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link; www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1211979673-UWxFyAviOwtfzQnt6sq5XQ# [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:04 AM Flag
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otoh - shows just how strong an investment in nyc is! [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:05 AM Flag
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no. actually it shows how big the bubble has gotten and how likely it is to burst. the ratio of purchase price to 1 year rental price in NYC is now over 30. historically it should be at around 15 and has gone down to around 15 in most markets. NYC is headed for a fall. if you purchased within the past few years you have NEGATIVE EQUITY [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:15 AM Flag
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I hope so - been waiting for the burst. It's happened b4 and will again. Prices are outrageous. Here and in London too - they are expecting the same [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:17 AM Flag
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I agree that there is some room left for a little drop, but unless we have come catastrphoic event (god forbid) the NYC market will never drop like that. The reason --foreign investors. Unlike years past, there are tons of foreign investors chomping at the bit to buy real estate here. They will keep the prices from going in the toilet. All to doomsayers will always say this, but it's not likely to happen. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:44 AM Flag
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ita. 25% of buyers of the new luxury condos you see popping up everywhere are foreign. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:46 AM Flag
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European markets are headed for a big fall. read the economists. we can no longer rely on the "greater fool" theory to prop up manhattan real estate. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:02 AM Flag
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mid-easterners are buying like crazy. and china is pumping out millionaires like there is no tomorrow. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:13 AM Flag
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and they are the ones doing all the buying right now. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:26 AM Flag
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great - who wants to live here if it's all middle eastern shieks. yuck I dont want to live in dubai [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:47 AM Flag
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Me neither, but we control things here and they have to blend in, in Dubai you have to conform to their standards [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:50 AM Flag
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I wasn't referring to Europe. No one thinks they have any money either. All the money is in hte Mideast and Far east. Pretty soon they will own this country. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:14 AM Flag
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real estate is the big thing for mid/far easterners. all my family is into real estate (my relatives are in taiwan.) [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:16 AM Flag
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^^some of my cousins have bought pied-a-terres for their kids in nyc, as it's common to send your kids abroad for uni. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:17 AM Flag
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Actually Europeans have a lot of money when they come here, with dollar as weak as it is everything is on sale for them. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 09:13 AM Flag
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at least 25% - bet it is more. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 09:47 AM Flag
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my best friend is a re lawyer - very slow and many foreigners have been pulling out or buying one apt instead of 3 [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:46 AM Flag
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np. Foreign investors will only keep the NYC market going for so long. If/When the US recession triggers a global recession, the sound of our bubble bursting will make your hears hurt. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 08:44 AM Flag
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foreign investors cant' buy co-ops. co-op market heading for a major correction. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 09:14 AM Flag
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NP: I wonder. Foreign investors are often speculators, which means they will want to rent their condos out, further pushing down rents, which--in turn--should depress purchase prices. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 09:45 AM Flag
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I think I need to stay in my house for 50 years... [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:23 AM Flag
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let's hope you have nice neighbors! [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:24 AM Flag
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I do love my neighborhood, and everyone is doing work on their homes, so it would seem they will be staying put too! :) [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:26 AM Flag
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i've also been waiting. selfishly hoping for a huge crash. if prices drop by about 40%, i can finally buy the house i want :-) [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:36 AM Flag
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right now you can lowball 30% off asking. that's what the brokers know but are not saying out loud. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:38 AM Flag
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lolol. Not in NYC. DH is on board of our huge co-op so we see all the packages. Prices are down a little but no way anywhere near 30%. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:39 AM Flag
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your dipshit dh on the coop board renders your comments useless. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:01 AM Flag
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np. that was uncalled for. and i agree. no way prices are down 30%. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 12:30 PM Flag
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not yet -took years for nyc to drop in the early 90s but it did [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:50 AM Flag
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Right, but this time also the weak dollar is hugely in our favor. If the dollar goes higher and foreigners stop buying the prices will fall. But dollar is not going up anytime soon so they are getting nice discount. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 08:29 AM Flag
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i think that 30% off the asking prices is actually very much in the market range. b/c people are really overpricing their houses imo. however, i don't have the nerve to offer 30% less than the asking price so i basically have just not made any offers. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:43 AM Flag
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how is it negative equity if we paid in full?? [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 09:46 AM Flag
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We did the math, and as long as we stay in our apartment for as long as we plan to, it was better for us to buy. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:21 AM Flag
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with rent ratios over 30, as they are here in most of NYC, even if you stay 30 years you are better off renting. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:22 AM Flag
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most young families need to sell when the third, or even second child comes along or when they get shut out of ongoings. alot of pressure. not a good idea to buy at these inflated prices. if you are gonna buy you should be lowballing by as much as 40% off the unrealistic asking prices. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:23 AM Flag
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about 50,000 finance jobs lost and about 40,000 or more to go. if you are in finance and you purchased recently you could be in serious trouble if you lose your job. if you haven't yet been axed you should not take on another obligation right now. better to rent. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:27 AM Flag
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For us, the rent on a comperable apartment would be more than double what we pay in mortgage and maintenance, and we get the tax deduction. We've been in this apartment for 10 years and wil be staying at least another 10. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:23 AM Flag
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NP. I think that's different - the calculator is about buying now vs. renting now. I actually think the market has finally topped out. Whenever you have people saying things like "NYC is different blah blah" it's the peak. It's just like the 2000 talk about why in the new economy there would never be another recession. But if someone plans on being here for a long time and needs to buy into a school district, etc. it might make sense for them anyway. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:33 AM Flag
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We used the calculator on the Times website. As long as we stay at least 6 years, we're fine. The market won't crash by 50% even if lots of people are hoping it will. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 08:31 AM Flag
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Sounds like what my dad told me just before I bought my town house for $400K. My neighbors are now selling for ~$1M. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:32 AM Flag
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take the money and run. if you can. the window is closing fast. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:34 AM Flag
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lol. I have some friends who have been sitting on the sidelines since mid 1990s because the prices are too high. We have bought three times since then, and always done quite well. They can't afford anything at this point, and not likely to get there even if prices fall a lot. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:38 AM Flag
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np: isn't it hilarious - there are tons of people in NYC saying "just wait" while the rest of us went out and bought and made some money! [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:40 AM Flag
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It's foolish to try to time the market, most people have no luck whatsoever doing that. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:43 AM Flag
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are you being a snobby rich person - not everyone could afford to buy b4 the rise. I hope you lose your shirt [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:53 AM Flag
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Exactly. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:40 AM Flag
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that hasn't been the case among my friends. i'm guessing you have had very good income increases along the way. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:45 AM Flag
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NP: I don't know a single person who has lost money or had difficulty selling an apartment in the city. We're at the lower end of the scale (most apartments under $750k), but still. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:47 AM Flag
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i live in the suburbs. people have bought but it's not that easy to trade up. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:50 AM Flag
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I'm not familiar with the suburban market, but that makes sense to me--especially the McMansions [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:51 AM Flag
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the people whose financial situation i'm familiar with aren't buying mcmansions. but they are middle class families, don't have huge incomes, stretched to buy and are now not so stretched, but they can't easily trade up. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:52 AM Flag
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np: if you "stretched" to buy at first you ought not be trading up so quickly, no? [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:17 AM Flag
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I know one person who did have a hard time. It was a 5th floor walk-up studio, low 80s btw 1st and 2nd, and he was trying to unload it when the market crashed in the early 90s. Everything was working against him, but even then, he rented it out for a few years and sold it at a small profit eventually. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:26 AM Flag
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ITA. If you can afford to buy, and you buy something you love and are willing to stay in for many years if you need to, then I don't think you can lose, regardless of the market. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:47 AM Flag
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let the brokers and those with negative equity lol all they want. they can even roflmao. the fact remains. rent ratios are over 30 and were historically around 15. the correction is coming. those you refer to who made a bundle did not buy in at rent ratios anywhere near that level. they also did not buy during a credit crisis and time of overbuilding and pending recession with massive layoffs. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:58 AM Flag
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np. Can you explain that to me? I do not know what a rent ratio is or what the 30 means. Thanks. I'd really like to know this stuff and don't know where to start. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:45 AM Flag
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NP: Yeah, yeah...so say the renters (as they have every year since 2001). [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:39 AM Flag
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what does The What think? [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 06:47 AM Flag
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Rents will probably rise while prices drop though. That's a paradoxical aspect of bursting bubbles. The lack of buying means more renting, which pushes rents higher. So they have to drop 40% at current rents, but at higher rents they may only need to come down 25% or so. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:14 AM Flag
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actually there will be downward pressure on rents as unsold new construction condos are converted into rentals. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:20 AM Flag
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that will provide some downward pressure, but not enough to offset to full extent of the lack of buying interest. For both to be falling, you'd really need a population decline in NY, which is very unlikely. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:22 AM Flag
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minorities and the middle class are leaving in droves. 100,000 finance jobs are about to go. public schools are either crap or are decent but crowded and underfunded. there may very well be a population decline coming. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:58 AM Flag
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So far the population has only been increasing, and school are packed as a result of it. It will take a lot to reverse that trend. If people leave where will they go? It's not like it's better in the burbs. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 08:27 AM Flag
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The predictions are actually just the opposite. Huge population increases are predicted. A million more people in the next 20 years. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 08:41 AM Flag
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minorities are leaving in droves? Droves? WTF are you talking about? [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 09:18 AM Flag
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This is not what I see happening now. Rents are dropping at the same time purchase prices are softening. I think it has to do with the number of recently built condos. NP. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 09:48 AM Flag
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exactly. a few are already doing this according to my father [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 07:55 AM Flag
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Does the article take into account the tax savings in having a mortgage? [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 09:18 AM Flag
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That's totally dopey. The calculation doesn't account for the deductability of mortgage interest, which is a huge factor. [ Reply | More
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General Topics 05.28.08, 12:03 PM Flag
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